Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu huddled with his security cabinet in a bunker late Sunday night, ready for the potential of Iranian ballistic missiles, when the phone rang.
On the line was President Donald Trump , calling with news of a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran.
It was the second phone call of the day between the two leaders.
In the first, Trump told the Israeli leader he was “pissed off” at Israel’s earlier strike on Beirut and that Netanyahu “has no fucking judgment,” according to Axios. In the second, Trump informed him the war they had launched together in late February was effectively over.
When President Barack Obama signed a nuclear deal with Iran in 2015, Netanyahu rejected it publicly and forcefully. He spoke before Congress , knowing he had the support of Republicans as he bashed both the deal and the president who pursued it. This time, the Israeli prime minister has said almost nothing publicly about the man who made the agreement.
The emerging accord is the scenario Israeli officials have spent weeks dreading: It could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lead to the easing of economic sanctions on Tehran while delaying talks on the issues that were Israel’s declared war goals. The memorandum of understanding leaves for later discussion the thorny topics of Iran’s nuclear program and its ballistic missile arsenal, even as it offers economic respite to the regime Netanyahu wanted to topple.
When Netanyahu finally made public comments after Trump announced the memorandum of understanding, it was hours after other Israeli politicians had already spoken. In a press conference Monday evening, Netanyahu hardly mentioned the deal in his entire eight-minute opening statement.
Perhaps even more surprising is that he barely mentioned Trump in his opening remarks, instead of boasting about their relationship as he has regularly for years.
When asked about the deal afterward, he said: “There are cases in which President Trump and I do not see eye to eye. … I am responsible for Israel’s security interests, and it needs to be done wisely.”
The agreement also may entail new restrictions on Israel’s ability to fight Hezbollah , as Iran is demanding a full Israeli military withdrawal from southern Lebanon, something Israel has said it is unwilling to do.
On Monday, a senior US official told reporters that withdrawal “was not a condition of the deal.”
“If Iran is not able to control Hezbollah, and if they attack, you know, Israeli positions or Israeli towns, Israel will have the right to defend themselves and respond,” the official said.
While Netanyahu has so far avoided a direct public confrontation with Trump, figures across the Israeli political spectrum have been far less restrained. Netanyahu’s own far-right coalition partners, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, called it a “dangerous deal” and declared Israel does not consider itself bound by it.
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett , who is running to unseat Netanyahu, called it “a dangerous turn in Israel’s security.” Former Israeli military Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, also a leading contender for the premiership, described it as a “miserable result” born of a lack of strategy and courage.
Netanyahu’s silence reflects a sensitive foreign policy moment, but also how central Trump is to his electoral strategy. Months ago, sources tell CNN, his political team had envisioned a clear arc for the election: a swift victory over Iran, a triumphant visit to the White House in September, a return visit by Trump to Israel in the final stretch, and a flood of presidential imagery sweeping Netanyahu all the way to the polls in October.
Instead, discussions to end the war are straining relations between the two leaders. A series of public disagreements exposed Trump’s pressure on Israel to end the war and limit its actions in Lebanon. His outspoken calls for Israel to cease fire and announcements about the nuclear negotiations on Truth Social, as well as a recent comment to ABC News questioning whether Netanyahu still wants to “continue” in politics, have all caught the Israeli prime minister off guard, according to sources.
Political consultant Nadav Strauchler, who previously worked with Netanyahu, described the current moment as a “test point,” but not a breaking point.
“I wouldn’t eulogize the relationship so fast,” he said, adding that with October elections roughly four months away, the relationship can recover, and predicting Trump will still be a center stone in the campaign.
“Trump has been angry before — at Netanyahu, at other leaders — and things tend to fall back into place,” Strauchler told CNN. “Until the last two weeks there was hardly any daylight between them,” he said. “Even now, Trump still respects him and isn’t closing the door. There are still 60 days to influence the final nuclear deal. As long as a candle is burning and the window is open, Netanyahu will try to get in through the chimney.”
The mood shift is easy to track on Channel 14, the pro-Netanyahu television network where presenters who once called Trump the greatest gift to the Jewish people are now denouncing him as a “loser” who has weakened both Israel and America. One Likud source privately compared him to the emperor of Japan in defeat.
“Right now, Trump is highly unpopular within Netanyahu’s base,” the source said, while noting the shift could still prove temporary ahead of October’s elections.
The numbers tell the same story. A recent survey by the Israel Democracy Institute published last week found a sharp drop in the share of Jewish Israelis who view Israel’s security as a central consideration for Trump — from 64% in March to 41% this month, the lowest level recorded since late 2024.
“Trump’s stock is declining,” right-wing political analyst Mati Tuchfeld wrote in the Maariv newspaper last week, “not a crash or collapse, but the trend is downward.” Netanyahu’s campaign team, he reported, is now searching for new messaging because a “Strong Together” campaign featuring the two leaders “will no longer achieve the same effect it was originally expected to deliver.”
Opposition leaders are also eyeing the shift. A source familiar with their planning told CNN that if Trump endorses Netanyahu, his opponents plan to use it against him and frame it as proof that he has “turned into a poodle and given up Israel’s security interests.” Opposition figures, the source said, have been conveying messages to Trump’s contacts, urging him not to endorse Netanyahu or take an active part in his campaign.
However, Netanyahu’s camp still believes it’s only a temporary hurdle. Behind the scenes, an Israeli source told CNN that Netanyahu is quietly seeking a one-on-one meeting with the US president — something his office has denied. Such a meeting would allow Netanyahu to convey his concerns about the emerging Iran deal to Trump. And it would give Netanyahu the political currency he was hoping to trade on: a picture of how close he is to Trump.
