IT seems that the upcoming general election for the legislative assembly of Azad Jammu and Kashmir and its aftermath will be critical both for the AJK, Pakistan and the broader region, unlike any other of the past 11 elections since 1970.
First, the general election 2026 is taking place under the overhang of violent protests organised by the now defunct Joint Awami Action Committee. Although the ongoing agitation is the fourth wave of such protests, it seems to be the most violent and severe. A number of fatalities among both civilians and law-enforcement personnel is just one aspect of the crisis. Although the JAAC has now been declared unlawful under the anti-terrorism law and some of its leaders have been taken into police custody, and despite the fact that at least a part of the leadership adopted a very irresponsible and extremist posture, it is difficult to deny that the JAAC and its 38-point people-centric and anti-elite charter of demands attracted a large segment of the Kashmiri population including the youth (particularly its Gen-Z component).
Second, the election is being conducted in the absence of two of the most popular groups. The defunct JAAC is not among the registered political parties of AJK and therefore not contesting. Some of its leaders and members tried to submit their nomination papers for the election as independent candidates but these were reportedly not accepted on one pretext or another. The other popular entity that is not contesting is the PTI which has decided to boycott the election as they see no prospect of a free and fair election. In the AJK elections of 2021, the PTI had secured the largest share (31.4 per cent) of the votes and had formed the government. AJK’s anti-defection law is not as stringent as it is in Pakistan, and, following the PTI’s ouster from the seat of power in Islamabad, many PTI legislators in AJK joined other parties. As a result, the PTI government was ousted from AJK as well. The absence of these two popular forces will likely impact the legitimacy and representative character of the legislative assembly.
Another unique aspect of the election is its planned conduct in three phases — unlike past elections which were held in all the constituencies on the same day. This decision of the AJK election commission is guided by the prevailing law and order conditions. The staggering of elections will allow the deployment of a relatively smaller law-enforcement force. The election in the Poonch (Rawlakot) division is scheduled in the third phase as it has been the most affected by the agitation and happens to be the venue for the current sit-in. The administration may also be hoping that some agreement is reached between the agitators and government by the time the third phase of election is scheduled to take place on Aug 10.
The new legislative assembly will have to deal with some knotty problems right after the election.
Phased polls are not a strange phenomenon though they have not taken place in Pakistan. India’s general elections and most state polls are routinely held in phases. There is, however, a critical difference between the Indian practice and what is planned for the AJK election. The Indian election commission keeps its electronic voting machines (equivalent of our ballot boxes) in safe custody after each phase and the counting begins only after the polling in all phases is complete. The result of elections in one phase, therefore, doesn’t impact the voting preferences in the subsequent phases. This is a critical point, which led to the holding of national and provincial election on the same day in Pakistan since 1997. Earlier, provincial elections were held after about a week after the National Assembly election, by which time the results were known and these impacted voting preferences in the provincial elections.
However, AJK election laws require the preliminary result of the election to be announced ‘immediately’ after the counting is completed in a constituency. The question is, if this system is followed, will the result in the first phase impact the voters’ preferences in the subsequent phases? If the result of all phases is to be declared simultaneously, the safekeeping of ballot boxes will be a major problem and may cast another layer of suspicion over the integrity of election.
The new legislative assembly will have to deal with some knotty problems right after the election. The most critical issue is the future of 12 seats allocated for refugees from occupied Jammu and Kashmir on which election takes place among the refugees settled in various parts of Pakistan. Refugees from these two regions settled in Azad Kashmir are not eligible to vote for these 12 seats. The key demand in the ongoing agitation is the abolition of these seats and restricting the voting rights to only those voters residing in Azad Kashmir. Since any change in the current system requires constitutional amendment, the demand could not be accepted. It stems from an impression that elections to the 12 seats are manipulated by the relevant provincial governments in Pakistan and therefore adversely impact the representative character of the assembly.
More than anything else, the new assembly and mainly the Pakistan government will have to seriously consider the interim representation of AJK in the federal structure of Pakistan. AJK’s people, especially the youth and the Gen-Z segment, are dissatisfied with the current arrangement as AJK has no representation in constitutional forums such as the CCI, NEC, NFC, Irsa etc. whose decisions impact them. To prevent a stronger protest wave, the government of Pakistan may want to seriously debate a de facto provincial status for AJK (and GB) on an interim basis without it adversely affecting Pakistan’s legal stand on the Kashmir dispute.
The writer is president of the Pakistan-based think tank Pildat.
X: @ABMPildat
Published in Dawn, July 26th, 2026
