Rapid urban expansion over the past two decades along a tributary of the Neelum River near Muzaffarabad has significantly increased flood risk, according to the official satellite data published on Space4Climate , a web portal powered by SUPARCO. According to the satellite-based assessment, uncontrolled construction along the tributary has drastically reduced the natural space available for floodwaters, making surrounding communities more vulnerable during periods of heavy rainfall and extreme weather.

According to the satellite-based assessment, uncontrolled construction along the tributary has drastically reduced the natural space available for floodwaters, making surrounding communities more vulnerable during periods of heavy rainfall and extreme weather.

The analysis compares satellite images captured in 2002 and 2023, showing a sharp increase in residential and commercial development along the stream. Areas that were once largely open have gradually become densely built-up, narrowing the tributary’s natural channel and limiting its capacity to safely carry floodwater.

SUPARCO warned that the growing encroachment has transformed what could have been a natural hazard into a much larger human-induced disaster risk.

The report noted that rivers and streams are dynamic systems whose channels and floodplains naturally change over time. However, increasing urban development inside these active flood zones, combined with more frequent and intense rainfall driven by climate change, has greatly increased the likelihood of destructive flooding.

According to the official information published on Space4Climate, Pakistan has experienced 89 flood events over the last 25 years, citing data from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT). The report states that the impact of floods has become more severe as urban development continues to spread into riverbeds and floodplains.

SUPARCO said its satellite monitoring systems continuously track river behavior and surrounding land use to support flood risk assessment and climate-resilient planning.

The report also emphasized that governments should enforce science-based no-build zones along rivers and natural streams to prevent further encroachment. It further recommended relocating existing high-risk developments away from active floodplains to reduce future disaster risks and improve public safety.

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