It was supposed to be a historic day: an American vice-president and a senior Iranian political leader in the same place –– something unthinkable for 47 years –– for what was billed as an in-person signing of the document expected to lead to an end of this war.
But there are no delegations in Switzerland and it’s not just the previously planned signing ceremony that is off –– the first round of technical talks of the next phase of this process, a critical step in getting to a real peace deal, have been delayed too.
Those talks were meant to begin as soon as the ink was dry on the memorandum of understanding. But something has clearly unraveled in recent days.
Things started looking shaky after a surprise early remote signing of the deal by US President Donald Trump as he ate dinner at the Palace of Versailles in France on Wednesday. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, soon signed it remotely too –– quickly casting doubt over whether an in-person signing event was now needed.
Then, lamenting logistics that “have never been simple or predictable,” a White House spokesperson confirmed late Thursday that US Vice President JD Vance would not be traveling to Lucerne, before the Swiss hosts said the talks were delayed.
The White House press pool was still waiting at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland for Vance’s departure on Thursday night just before that White House statement came out.
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What it all indicates is that phase two of this peace process will be just as bumpy and opaque as phase one was .
And the messaging from Iran overnight makes clear that the leadership there remains extremely skeptical of Trump’s intentions.
Even though he acquiesced to his top advisors in approving the signing, Iran’s reclusive Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said overnight that he “as a matter of principle, held a different view.”
That was followed by a bombastic statement from top negotiator, parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf vowing a “crushing response” if there was bad faith, a breach or excessive demands from the other side. Iran’s powerful Supreme National Security Council then said there was a “predetermined plan” for retaliation, should there be a violation - suggesting its military, like they did when the war broke out, has a list of targets they will fire at if things fall through.
Iranian wariness of the US is not new. After all, both this year and last year’s bombing of Iran came during a period of talks with US negotiators.
The messaging from the regime appears to serve two purposes: placate hardliners at home who would prefer no dealing at all with America and remind Washington that this could all fall apart.
That message is certainly intended for an audience in Israel too.
The memorandum declares “the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.”
But fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah continues, with Lebanese media reporting more than a dozen deaths in Israeli strikes just today, even as senior Trump officials, including Vance are increasingly willing to criticize Israel publicly.
Tehran always takes the written word very seriously, and it will insist on what is in the agreement being followed to the letter. The Trump administration’s approach is somewhat different, it seems.
“We don’t trust words, we trust action,” Vance said Thursday, as he revealed there were secret “gentlemen’s agreements” beyond what’s in the memorandum .
To get agreement on just the 14-point memorandum took months. This next round of technical talks, intended to tackle the thorny issue of Iran’s nuclear program, will be much more complicated.
It’s not clear yet when these critical talks might get under way, or even what shape they will take now. But with just a 60-day window to finalize a deal, any delay leaves less time to negotiate peace.
