The giant billboard on Tel Aviv’s main highway placed Turkey squarely at the center of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s election campaign. The image showed its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan , alongside the leaders of Iran, Hezbollah and the mayor of New York City as adversaries of Israel under the slogan, “They want Netanyahu to lose. Don’t let them win.”
Just a few days later, Turkey became the center of Israel’s latest military confrontation as well.
Israeli jets struck the Abu al-Dahar airbase in northern Syria, targeting what officials said was an emerging Turkish military buildup that Israel viewed as a significant threat.
But with elections just over two months away, the strike’s proximity to Netanyahu’s campaign messaging has fueled a debate in Israel and abroad: is Netanyahu preempting a genuine strategic threat or amplifying one to boost his ballot-box standing?
Throughout much of his decades-long political career, Netanyahu has portrayed himself as “Mr. Security,” equipped to confront any threats facing Israel. He is also a shrewd political operator with a long record of turning crises to his advantage.
Tom Barrack, US President Donald Trump’s envoy to Syria and ambassador to Turkey, issued a rare public rebuke to Israel over the strike, calling it an “unnecessary escalation.” In an interview with podcaster Mario Nawfal, Barrack suggested a political motive, floating a “theory” that Israel “simply tried to bait Turkey.” He called it “a very aggressive move, but one that might play well going into elections.”
Officially, Israel has framed the attack as a pure operational necessity: Netanyahu and his Defense Minister Israel Katz have both said Israeli intelligence indicated Turkey was preparing to install forces and equipment at the airbase.
An Israeli military source told CNN the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had gathered intelligence on Turkey’s plans to deploy personnel, drones and air-defense systems at the site. Such a deployment, the source said, could constrain Israel’s freedom of action in Syrian airspace and alter the strategic balance in the area. The intelligence, a second source said, was shared with the Trump administration and with Syria’s President Ahmed Al-Sharaa. Israel and Syria have held deconfliction talks over the past year, reaching what Netanyahu has described as a “status quo in security matters.”
On Sunday, Roman Goffman, the chief of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, met again with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani in Jordan to ease the latest tensions, according to the Syrian state news agency.
Still, Turkey, the US and some of Netanyahu’s domestic political rivals pointed to the timing. Rejecting the Israeli account as “untenable,” Turkey accused Netanyahu of “pursuing expansionist and destabilizing policies in the region” ahead of the October vote. The Turkish government said it would continue to cooperate with the Syrian government “on a legitimate basis for the establishment of peace, stability, and prosperity.”
Netanyahu and Katz have pushed back on the political motivation narrative, warning instead of an impending Turkish footprint in Syria. “We will not tolerate a military Turkish presence taking root in Syria and threatening Israel,” Netanyahu said last week.
Meanwhile, the Israeli prime minister also sharpened his already-combative rhetoric against Erdogan. On Friday, Netanyahu’s office branded Erdogan in an X post as an “antisemitic tyrant who oppresses his own people.”
Netanyahu and Erdogan have a long-running public feud, which intensified dramatically during the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Erdogan has called Netanyahu a war criminal and repeatedly accused Israel of atrocities in Gaza; Netanyahu has accused Erdogan of supporting Hamas. Recently, Netanyahu came out against the sale of US F-35 fighter jets to Ankara, warning of Erdogan’s “aggressive ambitions” in the region.
Amos Harel, a senior security analyst for the leftwing Haaretz newspaper, says that both the security and political explanations are relevant. “There are indeed indications that Erdogan’s approach toward Israel is very hostile, and that Turkey is undertaking various military moves in Syria, some of which concern the IDF – including at that specific airport,” he said, citing intelligence on Turkish plans to deploy advisers, drones, and air-defense systems.
At the same time, Harel told CNN, “it is also completely clear Netanyahu is pursuing a new and aggressive line,” one he frames as a lesson from the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel: strike first, on every front, while establishing security buffer zones along Israel’s borders in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. The Israeli military seized a 400 square kilometer buffer zone inside Syria after the 2024 collapse of the Assad regime and has occupied it since.
But the political context of the latest war of words has only deepened the suspicions of some of Netanyahu’s critics. Opposition leader Yair Lapid, who defended the operation itself as justified, criticized the triumphant Israeli statements that followed. “In the Middle East, striking when necessary is important. But if you struck, stay quiet,” he said.
Yair Golan, leader of the leftwing Democrats party, called the operation “provocative and dangerous.” Former prime minister Ehud Barak went further, writing on social media that the escalation “strongly reeks of a political intention to go into elections amid a series of security tensions designed to alarm the public.”
With Netanyahu and his political bloc currently trailing in the polls, his critics are concerned that a new security crisis could fundamentally shift the political landscape and help him control the campaign agenda.
“Netanyahu is known to believe that a security emergency is a last-resort option that could reshuffle the deck and improve his chances of surviving these elections,” Harel said. And with Trump constraining Israel’s war on Iran and limiting its military actions in Gaza and Lebanon, he said, “Turkey-Syria becomes a potential front. This raises, at the very least, a strong suspicion that political considerations are involved as well.”
