Tehran, Iran – Iranian officials are in Qatar for mediated talks with the United States, more than four months after the US and Israel launched heavy air attacks across Iran.
The negotiations in Doha come after the June 17 signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Iran and the US to end the war, which, in turn, has been followed by limited exchanges of fire and repeated threats of reignited conflict.
Israel appears most eager to resume large-scale military strikes against Iran and its infrastructure, with Defence Minister Israel Katz saying on Monday that targets are already selected and the army awaits an order to deploy fighter jets.
According to Israeli media, Katz told reporters that the war could immediately resume if US President Donald Trump decides the negotiations with Iran – which Israel vehemently opposes – will not yield results, or if Iran attacks Israel .
Katz said Mojtaba Khamenei, who was selected as Iran’s supreme leader after his father Ali Khamenei was killed at the start of the war on February 28 but has not been seen publicly, is “marked for death”.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded on Wednesday, saying that “any threat against our people and leadership will receive immediate powerful response”.
So if the war does fire back up, what’s the status of Iran’s military capabilities after months of asymmetric warfare against powers with more advanced weaponry?
In fewer than 40 days of intense attacks, the US military said it struck more than 13,000 targets in Iran, while the Israeli army reported launching approximately 10,800 strikes hitting some 4,000 targets.
In addition to targeting senior officials and commanders, the US and Israel attacked Iran’s ballistic and cruise missile and drone capabilities, as well as its defence-industrial base, air defences, command and communications hubs. Naval systems, coastal radars and nuclear facilities were also struck.
But the killing of much of the command structure did not collapse the system or prevent Iran from launching military strikes across the region. Iranian authorities have refrained from releasing any official information about the extent of damage sustained by the military sector, but satellite images , verified footage from strikes and local reports indicate a systematic campaign aimed at degrading Iran’s capabilities.
Many big and small missile and drone manufacturing, storage and launch sites were targeted above ground and underground, as were fixed and mobile air defence systems guarding sensitive sites, and production chains making propellant motors and components for precision-targeting systems, among others.
The Israeli military claimed early on in the war that 60 percent of missile launchers were taken out of operation, as were approximately 250 air defence systems. Many of the attacks were concentrated on the capital, Tehran, where Israel claimed “aerial superiority reshaping the operational environment”.
The Parchin and Khojir military complexes near Tehran, the naval base and port complex in southern Iran’s Bandar Abbas, the Fath airbase near Karaj, and missile facilities in Isfahan, Yazd and Shahroud were among the most bombed places during the war that began on February 28.
Numerous airports, naval ports, bridges and roads were struck across Iran, while the US government said it also considered the possibility of launching a ground invasion of Iran amid a considerable troop buildup. Any ground assault is believed to be significantly more costly and time-consuming than an aerial and naval campaign for the US.
Brad Cooper, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) chief, testified to the House Committee on Armed Services in May that more than 85 percent of Iran’s ballistic missile, drone, and naval defence-industrial base has been damaged or destroyed.
Many of Iran’s remaining fighter jets, mostly old designs still in operation as internal policy and Western sanctions prevented newer purchases or domestic development, were destroyed, as were a number of helicopters and refuelling aircraft.
Trump repeatedly boasted that he sank Iran’s navy, with CENTCOM reporting more than 155 vessels were damaged or destroyed. The most infamous was the sinking of IRIS Dena , a warship that was unarmed while returning from India’s MILAN 2026 naval exercise when it was hit twice by a US submarine in international waters off southern Sri Lanka.
Of the 136 crewmembers on board, 104 were killed, while the bodies of 20 sailors were never recovered. Trump told a cheerful Kentucky crowd in March that he got angry with his generals over why Iranian ships were destroyed, instead of being taken over for use by the US military.
“They said they wouldn’t have qualified for that. But I got a little upset with my people. I said, why do we have to knock them? And actually, one of my generals said, ‘sir, it’s a lot more fun doing it this way’,” the US president said.
A long list of civilian infrastructure was also relentlessly targeted by the US and Israel during the war.
This included oil and gas facilities, petrochemical giants, steel and aluminium manufacturers, industrial complexes, power plants, water facilities , fuel depots, universities, research centres and residential buildings.
In early April, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu boasted that the Israeli army destroyed 70 percent of Iran’s steel production capacity, arguing it was used for missiles. The two largest steel plants, Khuzestan and Mobarakeh, were forced to halt operations.
At the time, the Israeli military claimed that attacks on the critical Asaluyeh petrochemical complex and others had rendered more than 85 percent of Iran’s petrochemical export capacity inoperable.
Local authorities have said they are working to restore some capacity within months, but a full recovery would likely take several years and billions of dollars.
The naval blockade imposed by the US on Iran’s southern ports from April 13 was intended to significantly ramp up pressure against Iran and choke off oil exports , while exacerbating inflation that is hitting Iran’s more than 90 million people hard. Iran has exported more than 50 million barrels of oil since the blockade was lifted two weeks ago, according to TankerTrackers.
Despite the massive scale of bombing and damage across the country, Iran retains considerable military capabilities, and has been working to make quick recoveries where possible.
Large parts of the underground missile networks of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), some dug deep under granite mountains, have remained intact, according to officials, US intelligence assessments and satellite images.
Many such sites had their above-ground facilities and tunnel entrances bombed, most of which have now been reopened and some weapons recovered. The New York Times reported in May that almost all missile sites located near the Strait of Hormuz were rendered operational again, with full or partial activity returning to nearly 90 percent of underground facilities.
Some military facilities, like Taleghan 2 inside Parchin, have been covered with fresh concrete and dirt barriers, in order to protect them from more potential upcoming air attacks, according to the Institute for Science and International Security.
CENTCOM claimed that nearly 1,500 strikes hit weapons-manufacturing facilities, setting Iran’s ability to build and stockpile ballistic missiles and long-range drones back by years.
But in late May, US media cited informed sources as saying that Iran’s military was reconstituting much faster than anticipated, and that some drone production had already restarted.
CENTCOM later disputed media reports that Iran retained about 70 percent of its pre-war missile and launcher stocks.
While the IRGC and Artesh, the regular army, launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel and neighbouring countries hosting US assets during the first few days of the war, the numbers shrunk to dozens per day with an eye on a war of attrition potentially lasting months.
The one-way drones, which can be made at much lower costs than ballistic missiles or some of the projectiles trying to intercept them, have been increasingly deployed by Iran’s armed forces.
Brigadier General Alireza Sheikh, deputy commander of the army for executive affairs, said in mid-April that drone production since the 12-day war with Israel had “increased tenfold”, without elaborating further.
Iranian commanders have said they are now more battle-prepared after experiences from two wars with the military superpowers, which are also helping improve remaining air defence systems.
Iran said its forces shot down more than 200 hostile drones during the war, including an advanced MQ-9 Reaper by a new air defence system called Arash-e Kamangir , after a hero of Persian mythology who fought foreign domination.
Other low-altitude systems managed to make a handful of high-level full or partial interceptions, including of an F-35 fighter jet, an F-15E, an A-10 Warthog, among others.
Fighter pilots of the Iranian army are also believed to have launched a small number of air strikes during the war, reportedly including a successful bombing of US Camp Buehring in Kuwait using conventional unguided bombs.
It is unclear how many fighter jets remain operational, but air force commanders are reportedly conducting early negotiations with Russian and Chinese counterparts to purchase military aircraft.
Despite the sinking of bigger warships and a number of mine-laying vessels, the IRGC has been able to use smaller vessels and fast boats, along with its projectiles, to heavily disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, squeezing global markets.
The force used ballistic missiles and drones earlier this week to stop commercial vessels that were exiting the waterway through a US-backed route near Oman – not the route designated by Iran, which passes closer to its territory.
After the US attacked radar and other installations on Iran’s southern islands, projectiles flew towards Bahrain and Kuwait in retaliation.
Parts of the strait are still believed to be laden with mines. At least part of the highly-enriched uranium buried under the rubble of bombed nuclear facilities is believed to be extractable, but using heavy machinery in a time-consuming process, which will have to be agreed as part of a longer-term agreement eyed for the coming months.
But absent a reliable resolution, all sides have said they are prepared to return to fighting. Trump has repeatedly emphasised that this will include more attacks on civilian infrastructure, especially power plants, in Iran.
