Miami, Florida – Florida is home to 1.9 million Cuban Americans, the largest concentration in the United States. At least 900,000 live in Miami-Dade County, on the peninsula's southern tip.
For decades, that Cuban American community has formed a reliably Republican stronghold in South Florida. But last December, a crack emerged. Miami elected its first Democratic mayor in nearly 28 years.
The win fuelled speculation of a political shift under way in Florida, a largely right-leaning state. But when it comes to the powerful Cuban American vote, experts say no shake-up is on the horizon — at least, not in the foreseeable future.
“The fact is that Cubans, until proven otherwise, are going to support the Republican Party,” said Guillermo Grenier, a sociology professor in the Department of Global and Sociocultural Studies at Florida International University.
Florida’s August 18 primaries will provide a chance for this key demographic to select their party favourites ahead of a contentious midterm election in November.
But they will also be an endurance test for Republicans and Democrats seeking to target the Cuban American base far beyond this election cycle.
