Pakistan’s population may surge to nearly 390 million by 2050, marking a 62% increase from current levels, according to a new official report launched on Tuesday.
The “Population Projections 2023-2050” report was unveiled by Ahsan Iqbal and prepared in collaboration with the United Nations Population Fund.
The report uses the 2023 population census as the base year, when Pakistan’s population stood at 241.9 million.
The report outlines population projections under three different scenarios based on fertility decline and contraceptive use.
Under this projection:
The report states that demographic momentum and fertility patterns will continue to drive rapid population growth across provinces.
If fertility rates decline sharply:
The report notes that this scenario reflects slower population growth with a more balanced demographic structure.
Under evidence-based contraceptive adoption:
The report highlights a major increase in Pakistan’s working-age population.
The report describes this demographic shift as a potential “demographic dividend” if Pakistan invests adequately in:
The report warns that Pakistan’s current economic growth model may not be sufficient to absorb the expanding labor force.
Pakistan currently requires sustainable economic growth of 6-8% to generate enough jobs, but the economy has averaged around 3.5% annual growth in recent years.
The report also notes that ongoing fiscal and monetary consolidation measures under the International Monetary Fund program limit growth potential above 5%.
Speaking at the launch ceremony, Ahsan Iqbal said uncontrolled population growth has become a serious challenge to:
He also stressed the need to reform the NFC Award formula, noting that 82% of resource distribution currently depends on population share.
According to the minister, provinces that successfully manage population growth should receive additional incentives.
Punjab
Sindh
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Balochistan
Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT)
Population expected to nearly triple from 2.3 million to 6.5 million by 2050
The report stresses that Pakistan will require comprehensive urban planning, infrastructure development and improved public services to manage rapid population growth over the coming decades.
It also notes that although the share of people below 30 years of age will decline from 67% to 54% by 2050, the absolute number of young people will still increase to 212 million, reflecting a gradual transition toward an ageing population.
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