A large section of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, roughly the size of a five-story building, is expected to crash into the Moon on August 5, 2026, according to astronomer Bill Gray of the astronomy website Project Pluto.
Gray said the object is the upper stage of a Falcon 9 rocket and is likely to strike near the Einstein crater, close to the 10 o’clock position on the edge of the Moon’s Earth-facing side.
The upper stage is the top section of a rocket that carries the payload, such as a satellite, scientific instrument, or crew capsule, into orbit. Rockets are built in detachable stages so they can shed empty fuel compartments and other unnecessary weight during launch.
According to Gray, the rocket stage came from the SpaceX mission that launched the Blue Ghost and Hakuto-R lunar landers on January 15, 2025. It has been orbiting Earth ever since.
Gray said his orbit-tracking software analyzed observations in September 2025 and predicted that the rocket section would hit the Moon on August 5, 2026.
The Falcon 9 upper stage is expected to impact the lunar surface at 06:44 UTC, traveling at around 5,400 miles per hour or 8,700 kilometers per hour. Gray said he is confident in the prediction, although the exact impact location may vary slightly.
The impact is not expected to be directly visible from Earth. However, satellites orbiting the Moon may be able to capture images of the new crater created by the crash. These images could help researchers better understand the effects of space debris.
Moreover, the collision will not pose any danger, but experts say it highlights the growing problem of space junk. They have warned that the increasing amount of debris in space could make future satellite and spacecraft launches more difficult.
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