While the United States and Iran have continued to exchange a series of proposals and counter-proposals for peace since a temporary ceasefire was announced in April, leaders on both sides have repeatedly signalled that they are also prepared to use force against the other if the need should arise.
And, despite that Pakistan-mediated ceasefire announced on April 8, flare-ups since then have prompted fears that renewed war – rather than peace – could be next.
On Friday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that US bases in the region that are used to launch any aggression against Iran are considered legitimate targets.
This warning came after attacks over the past few weeks on both Iran and US assets and infrastructure in Gulf countries. On Friday, Iran’s navy also said that it had fired warning missiles and drones at US warships in the Gulf of Oman, and accused the US Navy of harassing maritime traffic and seizing commercial vessels and oil tankers amid the ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports, Iranian state media reported.
So, which is more likely – peace or renewed warfare? Here is what each side has said so far.
Iranian missiles and drones struck Kuwait’s international airport on Wednesday morning, according to state news agency KUNA, which reported injuries, damage to facilities, and flight suspensions and diversions. India’s foreign ministry said one Indian national was killed and several others were injured in the attack.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) said two Iranian missiles aimed at Kuwait had fallen short or broken apart, however, and insisted that several ballistic missiles did not reach their targets.
Iran’s Tasnim news agency said Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) had targeted US helicopters in a “regional country”, apparently referring to Kuwait, but it was unclear if the helicopters were at the airport or whether debris and intercepted projectiles had caused the airport damage.
Tasnim also reported that the IRGC fired missiles and drones at an airbase and the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. CENTCOM said projectiles aimed at Bahrain were intercepted, however, and that no US personnel or assets were harmed in either Kuwait or Bahrain.
Those strikes followed US strikes on Iranian radar and drone sites in Goruk and on Qeshm Island, as well as a US attack on a telecommunications tower on Qeshm and the downing of Iranian drones targeting civilian ships.
Tehran said US forces damaged an Iranian oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, and Iranian media reported that the IRGC navy hit a vessel it called “Panaya” with missiles in response.
These incidents mark an escalation following a brief lull after tit-for-tat strikes spreading across the Gulf last month.
On May 17, for example, Abu Dhabi authorities said a drone strike caused a fire at an electrical generator outside the Barakah nuclear plant’s inner perimeter, though no injuries were reported and radiation levels remained normal.
Earlier in May, the UAE also accused Iran of launching “a barrage” of missiles and drones at the port of the eastern emirate of Fujairah , injuring three Indian nationals and setting an oil refinery at the Fujairah Petroleum Industries Zone ablaze.
On several occasions, US leaders have stated that Washington and Tehran are close to a peace deal or that the war will end soon.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers on Tuesday that the US would agree to sanctions relief only if Iran agrees to give up its nuclear activity.
“The war is over,” Rubio declared during a sharp exchange with Democratic Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, who disagreed.
Rubio told Congress that Iran’s supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, was alive and becoming “increasingly engaged” in negotiations with Washington. Khamenei has not appeared publicly since reportedly being wounded in the February 28 US-Israeli strikes on Tehran that killed his predecessor and father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
As Iran reviewed the latest US peace proposal, Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on May 6: “They want to make a deal. We’ve had very good talks over the last 24 hours, and it’s very possible that we’ll make a deal.”
Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi met Iran’s Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) on Friday.
“Both interior ministers emphasised the need to continue diplomatic efforts consistently for sustainable peace in the region,” the Pakistani Ministry of Interior said on X.
When Pakistan’s military chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, travelled to Tehran on May 22 for “talks and consultations” with Iranian authorities, it seemed as if the diplomatic process was stepping up a notch. However, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Esmaeil Baqaei, told reporters the visit did not necessarily mean that “we have reached a turning point or a decisive situation”.
Then, on May 28, the US and Iran reportedly reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding (MOU), agreeing to extend the ceasefire between the two countries for a further 60 days and to begin negotiations for permanently ending the war, official US sources told Al Jazeera, but added that the framework still needed Trump’s final approval.
Neither Washington nor Tehran confirmed this MOU, however, and since then, skirmishes between the two sides have continued.
On several occasions, including the following.
On Wednesday this week, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unnamed US officials, that Trump had told his aides that he would consider ending the ceasefire with Iran if any US troops were killed in Iranian strikes. However, it seemed that Trump was otherwise unwilling to resume an all-out war with Iran.
Before this, US Vice President JD Vance said on May 19, “We are not going to have a deal that allows the Iranians to have a nuclear weapon, so as the president just told me, we are locked and loaded. We don’t want to go down that pathway, but the president is willing and able to if we have to.”
On May 17, in a post on his platform Truth Social, Trump warned that time was running short before a new wave of US military action might be launched.
“For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them,” Trump wrote in the short, two-sentence message. “TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!”
On April 20, Trump was asked by PBS News about what would happen if the ceasefire expired . “Then lots of bombs start going off,” Trump said.
Araghchi said on Friday that “standing against the world’s greatest power, equipped with nuclear weapons, for 40 days is no joke”, Iran’s IRIB news agency reported.
“We warned regional states that US bases used for any aggression against Iran are legitimate targets,” he said.
Iran’s chief negotiator and speaker for the parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said during a conversation with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri on Tuesday that Tehran could abandon negotiations with the US and move towards confrontation if Israeli attacks on Lebanon continue.
